Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players’ weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Carolina Panthers).
Although he had inefficient passing metrics in back-to-back games heading into the Texans’ bye, Stroud is primed for a rebound this week. He has been one of the best passers on vertical targets (his QBR on those is sixth-best among qualifiers) and when facing minimal pressure (his QBR there is seventh-best). That gives him an edge against the Panthers’ defense, which ranks eighth-worst against vertical throws while generating the second-least quarterback pressure. Quarterbacks have also averaged the third-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.49) against the Panthers this season.
Others to like: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Chicago Bears); Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at San Francisco 49ers).
A classic example of elite talent meets elite defense, Burrow’s fantasy points per game average thus far (11.4) remarkably resides beneath the 49ers’ average points per game afforded to quarterbacks (11.5). Burrow’s play ticked upward in advance of the Bengals’ bye, however, while the 49ers surrendered 378 yards and two touchdowns passing to Kirk Cousins. Having all 32 teams in action for Week 8 probably gives Burrow’s managers the luxury of a meaningful replacement (Stroud, Burrow opponent Brock Purdy, Prescott), but he’s understandably a tough name to bench.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (at Denver Broncos).
The past four weeks have seen him seize the Chiefs’ primary role, behind his 59% snap share, 65 of 81 carries and 79 of 104 touches among running backs. Pacheco managed a good-not-great 15.8 PPR fantasy points in these teams’ Week 6 meeting, but that was a low-scoring Thursday game in which the Chiefs went rather pass-heavy in the red zone (8 of 13 plays). It’s still one of the best positional matchups we’ve seen in years, as the Broncos have allowed the most PPR fantasy points and Adjusted FPA for the season and for the past five weeks, and they do so by a wide margin.
Others to like: Devin Singletary, Texans (at Panthers); Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens (at Arizona Cardinals).
Matchup to avoid: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia Eagles).
After a hot start, his usage has dwindled the past five weeks to the point that he has a 46.1% snap share, barely better than Antonio Gibson’s 45.8%, while averaging 9.6 rushing attempts and 11.2 targets per game. Robinson also had as many 10-yard runs as he did in Weeks 1-2 combined (4). The Eagles, meanwhile, have allowed only one running back to exceed 15 PPR fantasy points against them all season (Breece Hall, in Week 6), and they’ve limited the position to a second-fewest 0.39 points per carry average for the year.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Zay Flowers, Ravens (at Cardinals).
He has a 12th-ranked 27% target share and has been one of the most consistent players at his position, averaging 12.9 PPR fantasy points per game while never straying further than five points from that number in a single contest. Flowers could up his fantasy production this week, however, with quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off one of the best games of his career and the matchup extremely favorable. Six wide receivers have scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points against the Cardinals in the past five weeks alone.
Others to like: Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins); Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Pittsburgh Steelers).
Matchup to avoid: DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (vs. Atlanta Falcons).
Only four wide receivers have scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points against the Falcons this season, with Amon-Ra St. Brown (Week 3) and Mike Evans (Week 7) the only No. 1 targets on their teams to do so. Additionally, over the past five weeks, the Falcons’ 1.50 PPR fantasy points per target afforded to wide receivers is seventh-fewest. That could prove problematic for Hopkins, whose fantasy appeal this week will also be limited by Will Levis filling in at quarterback.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (at Commanders).
The Commanders’ adjusted FPA against wide receivers is considerably greater than against tight ends, bear in mind that they grade a plus matchup against both positions, but they also lost linebacker Cody Barton to an ankle injury in Week 7. That leaves this defense particularly susceptible to tight ends, as was the case when Darren Waller scored 22.8 PPR fantasy points against it last week. Goedert has a 20% target share, a team-leading four red zone targets and two receiving touchdowns in the past three weeks combined.
Matchup to avoid: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Dawson Knox’s wrist injury, which required surgery, will keep him out of this Thursday’s game and beyond, which elevates Kincaid’s role in the Bills’ receiving game. Still, Josh Allen has targeted his tight ends only 23% of the time, 12th-most in the league, and Kincaid’s matchup is the position’s toughest. The Buccaneers have allowed only one double-digit PPR fantasy point total to a tight end all season, and it came in Week 1 (T.J. Hockenson, 11.5).